A UK Government forecast that North Sea oil and gas could fall to just £100 million a year appeared to be undermined yesterday after a new analysis predicted the sector would generate at least five times that amount next year – at what experts say could be a low point.

Depending on the price of oil, production levels and the level of efficiency improvements that can be achieved, yesterday’s Scottish Government analysis projected tax revenues from the sector should be between £500m and £2.8 billion in 2016-17.

The latest Oil and Gas bulletin cast doubt on a warning earlier this month by the Office for Budget Responsibility which predicted North Sea oil and gas could generate just £100m a year in tax in future.

That report – which said the sector could only generate a total of about £2bn in tax revenues over the 20 years from 2020 to 2041, compared with its forecast last year of £37bn for the same period – was seized upon by Labour critics as a significant blow to the SNP’s policy on full fiscal autonomy.

But yesterday’s bulletin stated that the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS) “appears to be approaching a turning point where it could level off or improve over the medium term”.

Output for April was up by almost 10% on the same month last year, after maintenance work was completed on a number of fields, while 12 new field developments could begin production this year, it added.

It said that tax receipts over the next four years could total up to £10.8 billion, though that total depended on oil prices returning to 100 US dollars a barrel (£63) from the current price of 60 US dollars or £38 a barrel. In its worst-case scenario, revenues could total £2.4bn over the period 2016-17 to 2019-20.

But yesterday, while the opposition parties continued to insist the predictions “blew a hole” in plans for full fiscal autonomy, deputy first minster John Swinney said the new report indicated oil and gas production could rise in the coming years and that “there were considerable opportunities to extend production”.

“There is no disputing that the industry has faced a very challenging year and we continue to work relentlessly to safeguard jobs and retain vital skills,” said Swinney.

“These figures show that considerable opportunities to extend production remain in the UKCS and that, properly supported, the industry can boost production over the next five years.”

But he added that “stronger fiscal incentives” from the UK Government were needed to support exploration.

“It is not acceptable for the UK Government to sit back and accept low revenues,” the deputy first minister said.

“Both governments and the industry must continue to work together to improve efficiency, production and deliver better results for the North Sea. The critical issue is that the UK Government needs to deliver on its commitment to consult on incentives to boost exploration in the North Sea, and this consultation must be launched urgently – so that firm proposals can be announced in the Autumn Statement.”

Experts last night told The National the industry was going through a difficult period.

Professor Peter Strachan, of Robert Gordon University in Aberdeen, said Westminster needed to offer more support.

“The upper estimated tax receipts of £10.8bn up to 2020 announced yesterday by the Oil and Gas Bulletin are certainly less gloomy than those announced earlier in the month by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR),” he said.

“But the future of North Sea oil remains somewhat bleak. Rapid decommissioning in the North Sea remains a firm possibility and in the very near future, without government intervention. Westminster holds all the levers; the Scottish Parliament lacks the powers to act further than it already has. Thoughtful stewardship and strong support by the UK Government needs to be forthcoming.”

Professor Alex Kemp of Aberdeen University said while the next year or two would be challenging he believed as costs came down companies were more likely to start exploring new fields and the industry could recover.

“There are lots of fields lying dormant and at $60 they are not viable. But I am expecting with a $70 price new fields will start to be developed in three or four years. In the medium or longer term the industry could pick up,” he said.

The publication of the bulletin, on the day before Holyrood starts its summer recess, sparked angry calls from Labour.

James Kelly, MSP for Rutherglen, raised the issue at the end of First Minister’s Questions, saying: “This bulletin has been asked for for months across the chamber and has now been released in the last day of the session. It’s got profound implications for the Scottish economy with North Sea oil tax receipts at £40 billions less than the White Paper (on independence).”

But a spokesman for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon branded his comments “utterly pathetic”, and insisted that the bulletin was “published today because it was ready to be published today, it’s as simple as that”.