A MAJOR international investment bank has said it expects Scotland to vote for independence and introduce its own currency before the UK leaves the European Union.

JP Morgan gave the assessment after last Thursday’s Brexit vote caused financial turmoil on the London stock exchange and saw the value of the pound plummet.

“Our base case is that Scotland will vote for independence and institute a new currency at that point,” the bank’s economist Malcolm Barr said in a note to clients yesterday, after it produced a paper analysing the consequences of the vote to leave the EU.

The paper warns there are “myriad uncertainties in how the UK’s relationship with the EU will evolve” but says the bank’s analysis provides a “case for how we think things will play out from here”.

In a section on Scotland it said: “Intersecting the UK’s EU exit process is likely to be pressure to hold a new referendum on Scottish independence, which we expect will ultimately produce a vote shortly before the UK leaves the EU in 2019.”

The intervention came as a fourth poll in a row since the EU referendum suggested Scots would vote for independence in the event of a second referendum.

The Survation poll, conducted in the wake of the last week’s vote, suggests some No voters have changed their minds following the UK’s decision to leave the European Union.

The survey for the Daily Mail found 53 per cent would vote Yes in a second independence referendum, with 47 per cent for No.

Leave won 52 per cent of the vote in last week’s EU referendum, although 62 per cent of Scottish voters backed Remain.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has vowed to explore every option to protect Scotland’s place in the EU, stating a second independence ballot will be put forward by the Scottish Government if it emerges as the “best or only” way of achieving this.

Survation quizzed 1,055 adults between last Friday and Wednesday.

The poll also revealed that 35 per cent of SNP voters backed the Leave campaign, 47 per cent want a second independence referendum and 52 per cent agree with the First Minister that it would be “democratically unacceptable” for Scotland to leave the EU.

SNP business convener Derek Mackay said: “This poll is another strong endorsement of the actions of the First Minister and shows that when faced with the choice between being taken out of the EU against our will by a right-wing Tory government or continuing as outward-looking, independent members of the EU, more and more people are open to the possibilities independence brings.”

He added: “It is very clear that people in Scotland are simply unwilling to accept being dragged out of the EU against our will by a right-wing Tory government with no regard for Scotland’s interests.

“At a time when the UK Government and opposition are in chaos, this poll shows people back Nicola Sturgeon’s strong and stable leadership and support her decision to ensure a second independence referendum is firmly on the table and to explore all options to protect Scotland’s relationship with Europe.”

Following the Brexit vote, the First Minister underlined that plans for a second independence referendum are being drawn up as one likely course of action to keep Scotland in the EU.

She has stressed that the new vote would “not be a re-run of the 2014 referendum” as “circumstances have changed dramatically”, and it would be in the interests of Scotland’s economic stability and place in the world to remain in the EU.

“The UK that Scotland voted to remain within in 2014 doesn’t exist anymore, and this is a case of how do we best protect the stability and the interests of Scotland,” she said.

“This is a situation not of our choosing.

“If we stand back and allow it to happen then the economic consequences, the social, the cultural; the consequences for our place in the world would be devastating. I have a duty to find a different path for the way forward.”