DEVASTATION in Syria is “worse than the worst case scenario”, according to the Scot guiding Oxfam’s aid efforts.
Daniel Gorevan from Glasgow became policy manager for the conflict-riven country after fighting broke out in 2011, analysing the growing crisis and drawing up recommendations for the international community.
Now as the crisis approaches its fifth year, the Beirut-based Scot says the scale of destruction and violence has outstripped even the most damning predictions, making the results of any further escalation unimaginable.
He told The National: “The situation we are in now is much worse than the worst case scenario we predicted. One of the challenges is to get across the scope and scale of the violence and how all-encompassing that is. It has been going on so long that it has almost turned into normal background noise. But it is actually getting worse.
“It’s difficult to see how it can get any worse and yet it has quite dramatically.”
Gorevan spoke out as 30 aid agencies, including Oxfam, release a new report cataloguing deteriorating conditions in Syria and calling on Russia, America, France and the UK to “safeguard the glimmer of hope” February’s ceasefire has brought to civilians.
The countries are all members of the UN Security Council and the International Syria Support Group and the agencies say they could be key players in ending the suffering.
However, the report says they have instead “undermined” their own resolutions through inadequate diplomatic pressure, political and military support to their allies or direct military action.
According to the Fuelling the Fire report, which is published today, Syria experienced its worst ever year in 2015, with a spike in violence – including Russian airstrikes in aid of government forces – killing an estimated 2,300 people in November alone.
Overall at least 50,000 people have been killed, with 1.5 million more in need of humanitarian aid.
More than two million children are out of school, at least 500,000 are living under siege and last year 200,000 homes were destroyed, an increase of 20 per cent on 2014.
Meanwhile, attacks on hospitals and other health facilities – a recognised war crime – went up by almost 50 per cent.
While aid convoys are now reaching some besieged communities, bringing temporary relief to hundreds of thousands of civilians, huge areas still do not have adequate assistance as aid agencies continue to be blocked, attacked or harassed by all warring sides.
Restrictions on access across government lines mean only 10 per cent of UN convoys have reached those in need.
The war will enter its fifth year next week, when crucial talks will take place in Geneva.
Yesterday Gorevan said their success is vital in preventing an end to the fragile ceasefire and laying the ground for an eventual end to violence through political means.
He said: “This is the first time in a long time Syrians feel there is respite from the violence but also the international community is getting serious about resolving the conflict.
“This is the result of political pressure. The question is why this has taken so long.”
He added: “After failed ceasefires in the past the violence really intensified.
“Oxfam has long called for a political resolution. Even if there is significant military advances by one or other side, even if all the territory was to be taken by the government, the reasons for the crisis still remain.”
Those reasons include protests against Assad by opponents who aim to increase democracy.
However, all sides in the conflict are now accused of committing war crimes and Gorevan said there are now more weapons in the country than ever before.
And, even if the talks are successful, the world must remain committed to Syria for many years.
He said: “Cities and communities have been completely destroyed and huge numbers of people have fled.
“The infrastructure of the state from health services to education or the water system has been destroyed or damaged so much it will need a huge amount of investment.
“The effects of the crisis and conflict are all-encompassing. It will be a long time before Syria can return to any semblance of normality.”
Gorevan added: “It is not my country that has been torn to shreds, it is very much a choice for me to work on this.
“Working with Syrian organisations, they do inspiring, dangerous work and one of the things that keeps me going is to see their enthusiasm, their willingness to take risks and their aspirations for their country.”
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