ONE week after the May 6 election, a few things are becoming clear.

Firstly, only those in serious denial are still arguing about the SNP’s win or their indyref2 mandate. A settled will is emerging – even amongst those who plan to vote no or insist on two questions. One way or another, the vote is going to be held.

Secondly, having seen off unparalleled tactical voting by Unionists to push the SNP over the line, and with the heady prospect of Big Hugs and Staying O’er next week, many knackered Yessers are looking forward to a wee break from constantly chewing the constitutional fat.

Thirdly, there is clearly no point trying to harry or hurry Nicola Sturgeon. Last week, four parties stood against the SNP trying to vary the pace of indyref2, and all failed.

Alba wanted it faster – the Tories Labour and Lib Dems wanted it not at all.

So, the First Minister has received a massive political and personal endorsement, boosting her tendency to plough ahead without heeding advice, input or alternative strategies from beyond her own office.

So, what follows will doubtless get a deafie all round.

But Nicola better book an indyref2 date soon – even loosely – because a policy-lite Queen’s Speech could be a sign that Boris Johnson is planning an early General Election for May 2023, to cement Tory control of Westminster and muscle indyref2 off the park.

What’s the evidence? Well, the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Bill to scrap fixed five-year Parliamentary terms for one thing and the underwhelming nature of the whole Queen’s Speech for another.

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According to Paul Waugh from Huffpost: “Going for an early election in 2023 looks tempting, especially when delay risks an economic downturn. When Matt Hancock said on the Today programme that the government has already ‘delivered’ on getting Brexit done, rolling out the vaccine and protecting the NHS it felt like an election poster. If [targets for] 50,000 more nurses and 20,000 more cops can be hit by 2023, it could be game on.”

An expedient, early, disruptive, grabby General Election – sounds like Boris Johnson, right enough. And if it also nabbed Nicola Sturgeon’s preferred indyref date because she hung on too long before claiming it – so much the better.

Now of course, little can deter a Prime Minister like Boris Johnson from swinging a wrecking ball through Scottish arrangements. But if we have first dibs, if that space and date is already bagged and claimed for Scotland, it will be more difficult and politically damaging for the Prime Minister to jump in too.

So, whilst it may go against all her canny instincts, the FM should get a haud of May 2023 – if that is her preferred date – so the world gets its diary out and writes “Scotland” in bold letters on that month. After all, possession is nine-tenths of the law.

Now of course, many folk want the vote earlier.

But experts suggest the legislative process makes a 2021 vote impossible and as Gordon McIntyre Kemp has pointed out, an indyref held during this summer’s Olympic Games, with sporting distraction, medals, podiums, God Save the Queen, Union Jacks and Team GB mentions aplenty, might be ill advised.

If Nicola is confident that the risk of Covid will be past and her new White Paper will be ready, then May or September 2022 also have merits.

Council elections are scheduled for May 2022 which may make that an ideal date to piggy-back if the FM believes Unionist parties might drop their threatened indyref boycott for fear of losing local councillors too. But Scottish politicians tend to avoid such clashes – the 2017 local elections were postponed for a year to avoid conflicting with the 2016 Scottish Parliament poll, for example.

The indyref could be held before May – last weekend Nicola Sturgeon told Andrew Marr she “wouldn’t rule out” bringing forward a referendum by spring 2022. Perhaps the exceptionally high turnout in the recent “Covid” election encourages some optimism about that early date. But it could easily slip to August or September 2022.

Fine – but to give each side a fair amount of time to prepare, a 2022 date will also need to be bagged and announced fairly soon.

IN truth, the biggest obstacle to a firm date may not be uncertainty about the state of Covid recovery but even deeper uncertainty about the type of vote that can be held.

Since the SNP leader hasn’t yet requested the Section 30 powers for a 2014-style referendum no-one yet knows if Boris will stick to his guns or surprise everyone by conceding an “official” vote. The only way to find out is to ask, but that would provoke hostility from Unionist parties, suggest the FM does want to rush things, as her opponents have repeatedly claimed, and weaken public belief that Sturgeon’s word is her bond.

Still, whatever Boris says, the Scottish Parliament is set for a constitutional battle. Nicola Sturgeon told Channel 4 News last Friday that her government will legislate for the vote “and if Boris Johnson wants to stop it, he will have to go to court”.

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If the UK government is forced to activate the UK supreme court to quash Holyrood legislation, it risks stoking support for independence and making a making a Yes vote absolutely inevitable.

So if there will be a referendum one way or the other why not get ahead of the curve and name a probable date now?

Many folk will be encouraging Nicola Sturgeon to keep that kind of indyref detail to herself for as long as possible and she will face pelters if she plumps for 2023.

But if the game of cat and mouse with Number 10 takes time and circumstances push indyref2 back into late 2022, then it makes sense to bite the bullet and create a calendar entry for May 2023 before Boris gets moving..

It would help the mental health of every political campaigner to have some kind of timetable, because the election has achieved a step change in the legitimacy of indyref2 – a considerable and precious achievement.

Despite – maybe even because of reality-denying arguments by the likes of Michael (I see no majority) Gove – most Scots are ready to accept there will be a second vote.

We are two years from another indyref.

And we can win if we do two things done.

The first is to get the economic arguments right – and that’s largely the SNP’s job. No matter how many alternative strategies are ready to roll, it’s the Scottish Government’s White Paper that will focus criticism, belief and debate.

The second is to get organised on the ground, so that every Yes supporter actually votes necxt time. That’s a joint task for the SNP and the Yes movement. It would be great if the governing party could work with Greens, Alba and Yes groups so we don’t duplicate effort. But collaboration has never been the SNP’s forte and I don’t imagine that’ll change anytime soon.

Now Scotland is ideally placed to get a champion for independence on every street and in every village, tenement and block of flats, trained up and ready to go.

This practical task is more important than campaigning on related issues or trying to alter the speed/direction of the SNP.

The election and the preceding harassment inquiry have proved one thing. You can’t push the river. And whether you like it or loathe it, after her epic election win Nicola Sturgeon is the veritable Ganges.

What she can do is name the day as soon as possible.

What Yessers can do is recharge the batteries, reconnect with family and friends and then hit the ground running again with two objectives.

Healing rifts.

And getting organised.