THE day the Prime Minister visited Scotland to “show the sheer might” of the UK Union, an article appeared in The Times under his byline with the headline “In Sickness and in Health, this Union matters”.

In the piece, Johnson makes a series of unsubstantiated claims regarding the Union. Let’s consider each in turn.

LOCKDOWN

“The lockdown forced on us all by coronavirus could have spelled disaster for the country.”

The UK was one of the last European countries to impose a lockdown, resulting in a larger death toll than was necessary. The devolved Scottish Government lacked the legal power to impose a lockdown until March 25. As a result, Scotland was forced to

enter the lockdown only at the same time as England. A study by Edinburgh University epidemiological scientists found that 2000 deaths in Scotland would have been prevented had the lockdown been instituted a fortnight earlier than it was, instead of being tied to the later date imposed by the PM.

PROTECTING JOBS?

“The Scotland I’m visiting today is a nation where a third of workers have had their jobs protected

rather than being made redundant … And where much-needed wages were paid.”

The Chancellor is planning to end furlough payments in October, threatening nine million UK workers and a further two million

self-employed with destitution unless there is an economic recovery. The Scottish economy is operating at 20% below its pre-Covid level.

OIL REVENUES

“In April producers were literally paying customers to take [oil] off their hands – the British Government was uniquely able to give millions of families the security … by pumping billions of pounds directly into the Scottish economy.”

Johnson is implying that had Scotland voted for independence in 2014, it would have been relying on falling oil revenues to fund its budget during the Covid-19 crisis. Yet independent Norway plans to spend £36 billion to tackle the crisis – light years more than the Treasury is offering Scotland.

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The PM’s contention that the Union is the only model to protect the Scottish economy falls at the first hurdle. Note: Norway’s sovereign wealth fund, set up in 1990 to preserve the nation’s oil and gas wealth, has an accumulated value equivalent to £160,000 for each of Norway’s 5.3m people.

Also, the PM’s reference to energy producers “literally paying customers” to buy oil is bogus. He is referring to US oil prices, not North Sea prices which were never negative.

A MIGHTY TREASURY?

“It was the might of the UK Treasury that allowed us to raise, overnight and without question, the vast sums of money that allowed us to support the jobs of 900,000 Scottish workers.”

The latest Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) forecast is that the Treasury will need to find an extra £193bn in the 2020-21 financial year to cover the coronavirus emergency. However, the vast bulk of this money has been created electronically by the Bank of England and “lent” to the Treasury. To date, the Bank of England has agreed to create some £300bn in new money – much more than the Treasury has actually planned to spend. Not so much a “mighty” Treasury as a mighty Bank of England printing press.

The key point is that every independent country with its own central bank has been able to finance economic support during the lockdown by printing money. On March 23, the US central bank announced an “unlimited” use of printing money to support the US economy. If there is an issue for an independent Scotland it relates to whether or not it has its own central bank and currency.

SIZE OF UK ECONOMY

“It was the sheer heft of the UK national economy, one of the very largest in the world, that meant we could fund the grants and loans that kept the wolves from the door at tens of thousands of Scottish businesses.”

Economic size had nothing to do with it – see above. The other small industrial nations in Europe have managed the crisis on their own. We should also note that an independent Scotland would have received EU aid in the form of grants. Ireland stands to receive £1.8bn in outright grants from the EU’s new recovery fund. Ireland is also receiving the lion’s share of the £4.5bn earmarked in the next EU budget for member states hit by Brexit – more than the Treasury aid to Scotland during the pandemic.

HELP WITH PPE

“It was the UK’s massive purchasing power that saw us secure millions of additional pieces of PPE for Scottish hospitals and millions of doses of promising vaccines.”

It was the UK Government’s original incompetence that caused the lack of personal protective equipment for health and care workers. So incompetent was the UK administration that the Scottish Government adopted a plan of being self-sufficient in PPE provision, creating its own domestic supply chain for the production of items including gowns, masks and hand sanitiser. By May, Annan-based Alpha Solway had embarked on manufacturing face masks at a rate of five million per week – well above Scotland’s domestic demand.

ROLE OF ARMED FORCES

“It was the UK’s magnificent armed forces who brought mobile testing sites to remote corners of the country and airlifted critically ill patients to hospitals from some of Scotland’s most isolated communities.”

The British armed forces have indeed helped during the pandemic, which was welcome. However, unless Johnson is arguing that an independent Scotland would lack its own armed forces, it is difficult so see why this military aid could only result from being in the Union. In fact, had Scotland been independent, military aid might have gone the other way. In 2012 (the last year we have numbers for), the percentage of other ranks in both the regular army and TAs recruited from Scottish career offices was 12% against our population share of 8%.

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TAX CUTS

“The UK Government [is] providing a vital and warmly welcomed VAT cut for the hospitality sector.”

During the lockdown the Chancellor’s various blanket financial incentives and subsidies have never taken account of the different make-up of the economies of the four UK nations. In Scotland, hospitality and tourism play a bigger role than in England as a whole. It is the Scottish Government which has tailored its subsidy regime to local needs, diverting funds to fishing and rural airlines.

OPPORTUNITY CALLS

“When I stood on the steps of Downing Street one year ago, I pledged to be a prime minister for every corner of the United Kingdom ... to level up across Britain and close the opportunity gap.”

The UK has a high level of income inequality compared to most other developed countries. The poorest fifth of the UK population has seen a fall in income of 1.6% in the past five years as a result of the benefits freeze impose by the Tories. Poverty rates in Scotland, on the other hand, are lower than at the start of devolution in 1999 – and also lower than in the UK. This is due to social rents being kept down in Scotland.

BETTER TOGETHER?

“Whether it’s a Scottish scientist discovering penicillin in a London lab, an English-born author churning out chapters of Harry Potter in an Edinburgh cafe ... the people of the UK have always achieved more as four than as one.”

The new Internal Market Bill going through Westminster is designed to strip powers from the devolved parliaments after Brexit. More a case of the one (Westminster) dominating the four.

A SUCCESSFUL UNION?

“The most successful political union the world has ever seen.”

Ireland left the Union in 1922, sadly after a violent war of independence in which some people 1400 died. In addition, more than 60 countries have sought and achieved independence from British rule. Currently, support for independence stands at 54% in Scotland and 25% in Wales (its highest level ever). A recent poll in Northern Ireland showed 45.4% in favour of Irish reunification versus 46.8% for staying in the UK.

ON MARRIAGE

“[The Union] is no marriage of convenience – and we are here for each other in sickness and in health.”

Without being prurient, Boris Johnson is perhaps the last person to be offering advice on marriage and fidelity.