RESEARCHERS looking to the past to map the future say temperatures in polar regions will rise faster than previously thought.

Dr David Evans and colleagues from St Andrews University teamed up with experts at America’s Yale University for a new analysis of conditions during the Eocene epoch, which took place between 56 and 34 million years ago. Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels were much higher then than they are now, with trop- ical oceans at around 36C, about 6C hotter than today.

While the CO2 concentration – 40 per cent above current levels – saw temperatures elevated across the planet, the team found the impact on the polar region was particularly pronounced, with the degree of warming there “at least twice” that experienced in the tropics.

The findings are based on analysis of fossilised material and predict a more severe impact on the sensitive ecosystems than forecast in climate model simulations.

It is hoped that the research, published in the academic journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, will help improve our understanding of where the planet is headed. Evans said: “When we compare our results to climate model simulations of the Eocene epoch, we find that nearly all are unable to match these observations. In particular, the models underestimate the degree of polar amplification, which has possible implications for the accuracy of future climate predictions.

“This does not imply that climate models overestimate global warming. If anything, the opposite – they could be underestimating how much warming will occur in the polar regions.”

However, Evans says there are too many variables to say just how hot the coldest parts of the world will become, and how quickly the ice there will become water, causing global sea levels to rise.

These include questions around the continued consumption of North Sea oil and other fossil fuel resources.

He told The National: “We don’t know how much fossil fuel we are going to continue to burn for the next 100 years. The implications for the polar regions would be very different if we switched to renewable energy very quickly. The models indicate that future polar warming might be even more pronounced.”

Almost 200 countries pledged to help keep the rise in global temper-atures “well below” 2C more than pre-industrial levels when they signed up to the Paris agreement.

According to projections, failure to meet this could lead to worsening droughts in sub-Saharan Africa, reduced water availability in the Mediterranean region and the loss of some land to rising sea levels.

Research published last summer by Washington University concluded that the Paris limit will most likely be breached, with temperatures increasing by at least 2C and as much as 4.9C by 2100.

Discussing the new data, Evans said: “Even in a relatively mild country like the one we are in, it won’t just be that the climate will change in ways that I couldn’t list off the top of my head – the global sea level is going to be an important issue for everybody.

“There are a lot of other issues that will affect us. One of those is human migration and the knock-on effect that has on politics everywhere.

“What we still lack is an understanding of how temperatures are going to vary from region to region as the climate warms.”

The team will now attempt to gain a clearer picture of these variations.

However, Evans says the worst can still be avoided, stating: “It’s very easy to paint a very negative picture. Although these are very serious issues that will affect us in profound ways, there is a lot we can do to mitigate the effects. These can be relatively simple, such as putting pressure on public bodies to move more quickly towards renewables, recycling and sustainable agricultural practices.”

The research is published in full in the academic journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, available by clicking here.