THE price of cider on sale in off-licences and supermarkets could rise by as much as 90 per cent when minimum unit pricing for alcohol is introduced in Scotland next year, a study has found.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) economic think-tank looked at the effect of a 50p minimum, the figure the Scottish Government intends to bring in from May 1 next year on the prices of a range of alcohol types.
Cider and lager are among those that will see the biggest rises. In examples given by the IFS, a 20x440ml pack of Strongbow would double, while a bottle of Tesco cream sherry would increase by 20 per cent.
The IFS says minimum pricing is a “significant” intervention in the market. It agrees that the Scottish Government may be on the right track as heavy drinkers “do tend to buy cheap alcohol”, suggesting a minimum unit price may be “reasonably well targeted at this group”.
However, it says the policy’s impact will depend on how much the price increase puts off consumers, and suggests a wider review of the “chaotic” alcohol duty system could be a better approach.
Looking at figures for the year to October 2016, the study found that the average unit price of alcohol sold in off-licences and supermarkets was 47.2 per cent. About two-thirds of the alcohol sold (68.2 per cent) had a unit price of less than 50p. The average rise for alcohol sold for a unit price of less than 50p would be 89.5 per cent for cider, 43.8 per cent for lager, 23.5 per cent for wine, 23.4 per cent for spirits and 18.8 per cent for beer.
Martin O’Connell, of the IFS, said: “Heavy drinkers, when buying alcohol in supermarkets and off-licences, tend to choose products that are cheaper per unit than more moderate drinkers. A minimum unit price would therefore target a higher share of the units that heavy drinkers buy, but the policy will lead to substantial increases in alcohol prices that will affect many moderate drinkers.”
Health Secretary Shona Robison said: “We are currently consulting on the minimum unit pricing rate which will come into force on May 1, 2018. Given the clear and proven link between consumption and harm, minimum pricing is the most effective and efficient way to tackle the cheap, high-strength alcohol that causes so much damage to so many families.”
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