SCOTLAND is on course to lose £30 billion if the UK fails to secure a Brexit deal with Europe, according to the London School of Economics (LSE).
Research suggests cities north of the Border would be some of the worst affected in the whole of the UK.
The analysis, shared by the LibDems, showed that over five years a hard Brexit would cost the UK £430bn and Scotland £29.36bn.
A soft Brexit, where Britain secures a trade agreement with the EU, would still see Scotland losing out by about £17bn. Edinburgh’s economic output would lose £5.5bn after a hard Brexit and £3.2bn after a soft Brexit.
Glasgow would see a 5.5 per cent fall with a hard Brexit, costing £5.4bn, or with a soft Brexit a 3 per cent fall in economic output of almost £3bn.
Aberdeen would bear the biggest brunt of falling off the Brexit cliff edge, with its already fragile economic output falling by 7 per cent, equivalent to £3.8bn. Even a soft Brexit would cost it 4.5 per cent or £2.4bn.
LibDem leader Vince Cable said: “This work by the LSE brings out the extent to which Scotland would be seriously damaged economically by a no-deal Brexit.
“These economic modelling exercises are necessarily approximate, but if anything they understate the damage once we take into account the knock-on effects. And the damage to cities such as Edinburgh and Aberdeen will hit the whole of the UK because they are central to Britain’s prosperity.”
He added: “The UK Government must guarantee our membership of the single market and customs union. This is precisely why the Liberal Democrats, alone among political parties, are campaigning for an exit from Brexit by offering the people a vote on the final deal.”
Meanwhile, almost half of Scotland’s accountants want any post-Brexit transition period to last “as long as it takes”.
Research by the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland (Icas) revealed 47 per cent of chartered accountants surveyed did not want any time restrictions placed on transition, while just 9 per cent favoured a “clean break” with no transition.
Just under a third, 29 per cent, backed the Prime Minister’s proposal of up to two years and 13 per cent said they supported a transition period of three to five years.
A majority of respondents to the latest Icas Brexit tracker poll said they would be happy for the UK to remain a member of either the single market or customs union as part of a transition deal.
Asked to rate the impact of Brexit so far on a sliding scale of very positive (+50) to very negative (-50) the latest poll found no change from the summer survey at an average score of -9. However, assessments of the future impact on the individual businesses and the UK economy once the UK leaves the EU were more downbeat.
Bruce Cartwright, executive director of policy leadership at Icas, said: “Our members recognise and respect the privacy of the current Brexit negotiations. Nevertheless, the continuing public uncertainty is not helpful and is reflected in our members’ views.”
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