HOLYROOD may have to set aside seven seats for Ukip MSPs after May’s election, according to the latest poll.
Survation’s canvas for the Daily Record suggested Ukip might take six per cent of the list vote, which, according to Weber Shandwick’s Scotland Votes seat predicting tool would see the party with a sizeable presence in the Scottish parliament.
The poll suggested the SNP would take 70 seats, Labour 21, the Tories 16, the Greens on nine and the Lib Dems would be pushed from fourth place to sixth with six MSPs.
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Ukip’s leader in Scotland David Coburn told the National the surge in support for his party was part of trend: “I got in as the MEP. I think a lot of people like Ukip. I think people are sick and tired of seeing the usual nodding dogs in the Scottish Parliament,” he said.
“Labour, SNP, Liberal Democrats and Greens all the want the same thing. And then the Tory party want a half pint of whatever the rest of them are having. People aren’t enthusiastic.”
Poll blogger James Kelly from the Scot Goes Pop wasn’t quite ready to believe in Ukip’s Holyrood sweep.
“Survation have consistently produced more favourable results for Ukip than any other pollster,” he said. “Other firms that use volunteer online polling panels have failed to pick up more than three per cent support for Ukip in recent months, while the highest figure reported in a telephone or face-to-face poll is just two per cent. Unless Survation are right and the other firms are wrong, Ukip face a severe uphill battle to win any list seats at all.”
The poll was the second in as many weeks to show that Nicola Sturgeon was by some considerable distance the most popular leader, with an approval rating of +25. Next was Patrick Harvie from the Greens on -1, Ruth Davidson on -6 and Kezia Dugdale on -7.
It may not be good news for Dugdale or Davidson, but they did fare better than Jeremy Corbyn on -19 and David Cameron on -35.
Since last month’s poll, in the constituency vote the SNP were up one per cent to 53, Labour were also up one to 22, the Tories remain on 16 and the Liberal Democrats down one on six.
In the list the SNP were up three to 45 per cent, Labour were down two to 18, the Tories were down one to 15 per cent, the Greens remained on nine per cent, and the Lib Dems and Ukip on six.
Survation interviewed 1,006 Scottish adults aged 16+ between February 11 and 16.
Chris Hopkins from the polling company said there had been very little change since the poll in January with the SNP continuing to “dominate the political landscape in Scotland.”
He continued: “The Labour Party still remain more than 30 points behind the SNP in the constituency voting intention, whilst the Conservatives have not made any noticeable progress despite some commentators proposing that the Conservatives will be aiming for a “serious Holyrood campaign”.