WE CAN expect the SNP to enjoy a lively conference in Glasgow over the next three days, and Nicola Sturgeon to finish it off with one of her eloquent speeches that will have roars of support from party members ringing in her ears.

She can play on the fact that there is plenty for Scots to beef about in the present political situation: Brexit against our will, the secrecy of the coming negotiations, contempt for that sovereignty of Parliament the English always ramble on about and, perhaps above all, the complete obscurity that the whole lot of it casts over our own politics for the period ahead, leaving us with no idea whether a second referendum on independence is possible or even desirable in the near future. It will be nice if the conference generates more light than heat, though I doubt it. Maybe the Forbidden Fringe is the only place to look.

For myself I would favour an early second referendum if it is at all possible, so that it can finesse any need for Scotland to drop out of the EU and a few years later scrabble to get back in: We would just continue the membership we have enjoyed since 1973, with a few necessary adjustments of contributions, voting rights and the like to reflect the fact that the rest of the UK had left us to it. But this smooth Scremain, if I can coin a phrase, seems less and less likely to happen. Time is of the essence, and time is running out. It may be running out not through any fault of our own, but because of the confusion over the method and mode of Brexit in the government in London. Yet that is the political reality we face.

Still, there is another reason, internal to Scotland, why the route to the smooth Scremain looks to be blocked. The reason is that a second referendum on independence could not be won in the present state of public opinion. We hear a rising chorus of siren voices that the Scottish Government should go for it anyway, and rely on another vigorous campaign to get more than 50 per cent for Yes. But that would just be a gamble threatening the loss of what has so far been gained, and I don’t believe cautious Nicola will risk it. She has said she wants consistent evidence from the opinion polls of 60 per cent support. This is a high standard, but even a lower one is out of reach now.

The reason, or at least one big reason, why a second referendum could not be won lies in the very enthusiasm of all the devotees who will cheer her to the rafters of the SECC at the final session of the conference on Saturday. They can also work themselves up into a great tizzy over Tory dogmatism and perfidy (not something that indignation from Scotland is likely to change). But they all belong to the 45 per cent of September 18, 2014, who have already been as deeply offended by the present miserable course of British politics as they are ever going to be. The key to the whole business lies rather in the 55 per cent of No voters.

What do these Scots think of the UK Government’s manoeuvres? We should pause to reflect that a good many of them might actually support what Theresa May and her merry men are up to at Westminster. The figure of 32 per cent of the Scottish electorate that voted to leave the EU easily comprehends the Conservative vote in the last election to Holyrood. The wriggling of Ruth Davidson shows even those of them who, by contrast, opted for Remain will now put their loyalty to London above any regret for Europe. So, do not expect this big portion of the No vote in the first Scottish referendum to offer easy pickings for Yes in a second one.

We do not know much about the residue of 20 per cent or so. There will be die-hard Labour Unionists in there, and now homeless LibDems. Above all there will be the swing voters, that crucial section of the electorate that has no fixed allegiances but judges the issues at every poll on their merits. They make the difference between defeat and victory for all the other forces engaged, despite the superior degree of conviction and commitment these may deploy. Or at least, this is to show the swing voters in their best light. Of course, they might just be confused, unreliable, indifferent and foolish: It is normal for human vice rather than human virtue to rule the world.

It would in any case be reasonable to assume that the swing voters, as they approach a ballot box, have the material prosperity of themselves and their families uppermost in their minds rather than any great public cause. Fair enough: That is the essence of our democracy. Which makes it all the more vital for the SNP and the activists going to its conference to find a deeper response than they have given us so far to the major issue that has loomed since the two referendums.

In other words, they need to say much more about the all-too- apparent weaknesses of the Scottish economy, about its long-term laggard growth rate and about the short-term crisis bound to be brought on by Brexit. And they need to show how any ordinary Scotsman or Scotswoman can, through their personal enterprise and commitment, make a far greater contribution to the general good than they do just now, rather than relying for everything on the government and the public sector.

I see there are brave souls ready to raise issues like this, George Kerevan MP (though only on the Forbidden Fringe) and Roger Mullin MP, with his call in The National yesterday for the tighter regulation of the banks that no UK government has had the gumption to bring in since the great crash of 2007-08. I hope their voices are not going to be entirely drowned out by the whoops and cheers emanating from the SECC on Saturday afternoon.

The plain fact is that, as things stand, the SNP is in effect offering Scots lower living standards in an independent nation than they would enjoy by staying in the UK under the existing regime. In my view the policies of this regime reinforce our dependency and prevent our potential being realised. Independence is the way to unleash the potential because it would allow a different set of policies to be followed, just see what some of our European neighbours do, especially those that have freed themselves from other empires on their last legs.

But then, the right policies have actually to be adopted, or at least adumbrated, for a future state of affairs where Scotland will enjoy full fiscal freedom. This is how the SNP at present falls down. It is stuck with the assumption it was making before the two referendums, essentially of a Scotland that did not seriously need to look out for itself. There was always somebody else out there to give us the living we were owed, from the government in London to the oil companies in the North Sea.

The times have changed with a vengeance, however. We need to ditch all the touchy-feely stuff about sustainability and inclusion for something much leaner and meaner. Without faster economic growth, there can be no Scottish independence because doubters will not be won over. Perhaps we might hear of all this from the SNP conference. I’ll not hold my breath.