ONE year on from the referendum on independence and the No campaign’s victory looks less decisive by the day. In my 20s I was a keen Thai boxer and all fighters know that, regardless of who scores the most points, if you don’t deliver a knockout blow in round one then you are coming out to fight again in round two. Keeping with the boxing analogy, how did the two sides match up in round one and, more importantly, what’s likely to happen in round two?
No won votes through fear of change.
People naturally fear change, especially when change is an option and not a necessity. The Yes campaign was positive and upbeat by comparison to Project Fear, and the legacy of those two positions is an invigorated Yes movement and an all-conquering SNP. After all, how can anyone vote for a political party to run Scotland if they have just spent two years talking Scotland down? The No camp expertly played on people’s fear of change and Yes was seen to be asking to be trusted on too many issues.
Yes won hearts and minds on social policy.
The Coalition Government had a poor track record on social protection (bedroom tax, benefits, etc) and Labour’s move to the right under Blair and Brown made this a major weak point for the No Campaign.
No won people over with promises of more powers.
Not just the Vow, that was just part of the Unionist theme of vote No and get Devolution Max. Westminster fought to keep Devo Max off the ballot paper and for 25 per cent of No voters promises of more powers were the key reason they voted No. The resultant Scotland Bill is an unworkable, constitutional fudge. With only nine per cent believing that the Vow has been delivered, now the No camp’s only positive message is its biggest weakness.
Yes won on the NHS.
This was a big issue, as more than half of Yes voters saw this as one of the three main reasons for voting Yes. Initially, No scored points on this issue but the Yes side turned the tide by highlighting the threat to the NHS from Westminster’s cuts and privatisation agenda.
No won on currency, but it backfired spectacularly after the referendum.
No made this a major area of uncertainty by ruling out a currency union. Even if a deal would have been done ultimately, it was a complex issue and in an election if your position is complex you are losing. This was also one of the drivers of the post-referendum destruction of the Labour vote, as it provided cast-iron evidence that the No camp didn’t have Scotland’s best interests at heart. Anyone who thinks that offering a Scottish pound would have changed the result is kidding themselves. The No camp had arguments of equal ferocity against all currency options, but it might have been better to find a way not to give them the opportunity to say No to a currency union.
Yes won on Westminster’s track record.
Everything from illegal wars to fiddling expenses, its lack of understanding of Scotland and the undemocratic and pompous House of Lords damaged the No campaign. However, Yes was running a relentlessly positive campaign and didn’t exploit this weakness fully. That said, Yes won on positive campaigning versus the incessant negativity of Better Together.
No landed some serious blows by creating uncertainty over EU membership and conventional defence, especially Nato membership and pensions. Most would now agree that EU membership is more at risk from a Westminster referendum that it ever was from Scotland’s independence. Nato looks set to allow Montenegro to join, a non-nuclear country with a population similar to Glasgow – go figure. As many as 75 per cent of pensioners voted No. Pension worries centred around the myth the UK has a huge pension pot which Scotland couldn’t access after independence; it doesn’t, and a UK pension crises looms.
Yes scored points with a far better, more highly motivated grassroots campaign. Moreover, the regional Yes groups did the heavy lifting and Radical independence, Women for Indy, Academics for Yes, NHS for Yes, National Collective and my own Business for Scotland, to name but a few, all took the fight to the political party-based No campaign. Yes won convincingly on social media but in the business community No won on big business (multimillionaire Tory voters would tend to vote No) and Yes won in the small and medium sized business sector.
That all looks fairly even, so why did Scotland vote No?
There are two main reasons. Firstly, the No camp had a head start: when the SNP majority in 2011 guaranteed a referendum, support for independence was at only 33 per cent while the Union polled more than double that at 68 per cent. Secondly, the No camp’s major advantage was that the media was almost universally on their side. One-sided reporting meant the whole campaign was like a game of tennis where only the No camp was allowed to serve.
So what next?
The polls now average 50/50 and the Union is in trouble; its key message of “trust us on more powers” has fallen apart. No one would ever believe them again. Labour can never again team up with the Conservatives and separate No campaigns would lead to easily exploitable divisions. Labour, now on its knees, must be terrified of a 2020 referendum just months before the 2021 Holyrood elections. Corbyn cannot win and, if he could, what good is another Unionist PM?
Westminster’s record is becoming indefensible with cuts to vital services and budgets, English votes for English laws, food banks, poverty and dissatisfaction with a Tory majority that Labour assured us wouldn’t happen. We stayed Together, but most don’t think things got Better.
The Yes side are in better shape, Nicola Sturgeon is just as good and not such a polarising figure as Alex Salmond, and the resurgent Greens will soon have more MSPs, more money, and more credibility. Yes still needs at least one major red top on-side and the Scottish Government should make BBC devolution and neutrality a line-in-the-sand issue.
Add to that a 'Vow' on pensions in an independent Scotland and a more detailed plan to make Scotland a more prosperous, fairer, greener, confident and successful nation and support for Yes will rise till another referendum and a Yes victory become inevitable.
The National View: Why we're still Yes ... and will fight on
Letters to The National, September 18: Should we 'move on' from the indyref and accept our lot?
Jeanne Freeman: The indyref created a space to reinvigorate gender politics
Wee Ginger Dug: 'I felt connected to Scotland's beauty, even as I mourned the death of my beloved partner Andy'
Sturgeon tells Cameron he’s ‘on borrowed time’ as she calls for PM to listen to Scotland’s voice
Patrick Harvie: We must do things differently next time around
Project Fear: Story of how the Better Together campaign nearly fell apart
Why are you making commenting on The National only available to subscribers?
We know there are thousands of National readers who want to debate, argue and go back and forth in the comments section of our stories. We’ve got the most informed readers in Scotland, asking each other the big questions about the future of our country.
Unfortunately, though, these important debates are being spoiled by a vocal minority of trolls who aren’t really interested in the issues, try to derail the conversations, register under fake names, and post vile abuse.
So that’s why we’ve decided to make the ability to comment only available to our paying subscribers. That way, all the trolls who post abuse on our website will have to pay if they want to join the debate – and risk a permanent ban from the account that they subscribe with.
The conversation will go back to what it should be about – people who care passionately about the issues, but disagree constructively on what we should do about them. Let’s get that debate started!
Callum Baird, Editor of The National
Comments: Our rules
We want our comments to be a lively and valuable part of our community - a place where readers can debate and engage with the most important local issues. The ability to comment on our stories is a privilege, not a right, however, and that privilege may be withdrawn if it is abused or misused.
Please report any comments that break our rules.
Read the rules here