George Kerevan: The Tory Humpty Dumpty is now beyond repair

Yet no matter how much the party of the British ruling establishment enjoys its Manchester knees-up – and its first parliamentary majority in 23 years – all is not going well long-term for the Conservatives. The historic winds are, in fact, shifting to the left on a global basis. The Tories will be making a big mistake if they read their unexpected victory in May as proof of a divine right to revive British capitalism and the British state.

Consider: even when victorious, the Conservative share of the vote across Britain has fallen systematically and remorselessly since the 1930s. Its highest level was 55 per cent in 1931. It then slid to a post-war peak of 49.6 per cent in 1955, when they won Scotland. Margaret Thatcher merely delayed the inevitable and in 1992 John Major could only garner 41.9 per cent – seemingly credible but a sign of worse to come. In this year’s election, their share of the vote dropped again to a meagre 36.9 per cent in May. No wonder the Tories were amazed to find they were in charge again.

Once upon a time – in the late 19th and through much of the 20th century – the British ruling establishment, using the Tory Party as its chosen instrument, was able to avoid the revolutions and civil wars that hindered the development of industrial capitalism in Europe. The “One Nation” Tories were able to mobilise a broad electoral alliance of skilled workers, shopkeepers, white van men and women, pensioners, the military, farmers, industrialists, bankers, and churchmen. They did so using patriotic appeals to the Crown, the protestant religion and Britishness, cemented by victory (though at horrendous cost in blood and treasury) in two world wars. Behind this artifice, the City of London, the landed aristocracy and British industry (though hardly efficient by American or German standards) were left free to pile up the dosh.

But this Tory electoral bloc has long since started to fragment as the UK economy declined and with it “Britishness” as a unifying ideology. The collapse of manufacturing – which used to pay half-decent wages, thanks to strong trades unions – has left the UK with a bubble economy based on burgeoning consumer debt, underpinned only by an unsustainable housing market. The Celtic fringes have revolted, preferring to seek their own economic salvation rather than be dictated to by a London dominated by City banking interests. Nothing is going to put the Tory Humpty Dumpty together again. The Conservative victory in May was more accident than design, caused by the failure of the then Labour leadership, which was too “frit” to oppose the Tory austerity agenda and so lost four million votes to Ukip.

What next for the Tories? There is now a major debate going on inside Conservative ranks regarding how to respond to Labour’s tack to the left (for the moment) under Jeremy Corbyn. If you assume – as does the Tory media – that a Corbyn Labour Party can’t win the next election (or even two) then it means the Conservatives have the political freedom to do what they want. Under Thatcher, when a similar electoral opportunity presented itself, the Tories charged to the right, privatising and deregulating with abandon. For many among the new intake of neoliberal Conservative MPs at Westminster, it is now time to finish the job started by their idol, Saint Margaret.

For more cautious, or (perhaps) more sophisticated Tories, moving to the far right – in a mirror image of Labour’s shift to the far left – is a risky project given the party’s ever-diminishing share of the national vote. So why not use the opportunity afforded by Labour’s emerging civil war to recapture the centre ground? If successful, that could return the Tories to being the natural party of Government, hegemonic for a generation to come. Just think of the loot that offers.

Leading the “centrists” (a very relative term, of course) is Chancellor George Osborne, the Prime Minister’s anointed successor and the undoubted brains of the duo. Osborne, of course, is basking in the glory of a “growing” economy and his war on public spending. What folk outside of the Westminster bubble don’t see is that our George has also created a Stalinist-type Nomenklatura of placemen throughout the parliamentary party, beholden to himself. The Chancellor is deadly serious about securing the succession, hence hisas and when Dave retires. Hence Mr Osborne’s royal visit to China, as a way of burnishing his leadership credentials.

However, George isn’t having it all his own way, as the Tory conference may show. For starters, chancellors of the exchequer only look good when the economy is (almost) behaving, and there are strange rumblings deep in the economic engine room that could bode ill for Osborne’s leadership coronation. With the Chinese economy tanking, the resulting collapse in global commodity prices, and dithering over interest-rate changes in America spooking the markets, we are seeing pessimism begin to grip international investors. If Osborne were a company stock, now would be a good time to start short selling him.

Who is the alternative to Osborne? Enter the mayor of London, the manic Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. Boris returned to Westminster in May assuming the Tories would be forced into coalition again with the hated LibDems, followed by the instant resignation of David Cameron, and himself in pole position to revive an angry Tory Party. Now marooned on the back benches, Boris makes a comic figure, increasingly given to making erratic speeches signifying nothing but his own frustration.

But don’t write off Boris just yet. He is just ideological enough to outflank Osborne on the right – the Thatcherite ultras lack any other credible standard bearer. And he is also populist enough to win elections – witness his twice beating Ken Livingstone for mayor of London, a Labour-leaning city. Which brings us to the real issue being discussed heatedly between those champagne toasts, among the Tory faithful in Manchester: the coming European referendum.

Cameron and Osborne are determined to stay in the EU, in compliance with the wishes of the City of London. Mayor Boris, you might imagine, would follow suit. But there are increasing rumours that the maverick Boris is contemplating leading the No campaign. He knows that some 58 per cent of actual Tory Party members want to quit the EU, according to a survey by the Conservative Home website. He also knows that if a credible figure were to front the No campaign (ie himself), then the mainstream Tory press would fall over itself to offer support. And it would be a good way to split Labour into the bargain.

Where does that leave Scotland? Very possibly still inside the UK, but outside the EU, and ruled by a blond-mopped populist who opposed giving us more tax powers.

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