EVERYONE in life is allowed to do a few monumentally stupid things. We all make mistakes. Things that seemed like good ideas at the time. Endowment mortgages, Cleggmania, bootcut jeans. If your life quota of ill-advised choices is already exhausted, whatever you do don’t be a Scottish independence supporter feeling an urge to vote Leave in the hope of a second indyref. But if you are one of those creatures, you need to face a simple fact: a second referendum just isn’t going to happen after Brexit.

It’s so tempting to think the Scottish electorate will have a sudden and massive change of heart about independence. If that happens my shock will be overtaken by my joy. But we all have to face the harsh reality that there is no actual evidence that this will happen.

Think back to October 2012. A Panelbase poll reported 56 per cent of Scots “quite” or “very” likely to vote for independence, if they felt the 2015 General Election would return a Tory-led government. Almost four years on and we have that Conservative government but we don’t have that majority for independence.

What if following that poll the SNP had committed to another snap referendum in the event of a Conservative government?

Today those of us who support independence would be facing disaster. As we know there was no magic overnight revolution in independence support. There was a bounce, not a surge. Nicola Sturgeon would have spent a year calling on former Labour voters to back Yes, arguing the promise made to them that they could vote No for a less Conservative UK had not been delivered and so circumstances had changed sufficiently to revisit the question of independence. It would have been a desperate strategy and a huge gamble. A stake as precious as the prospect of your country’s independence is not thrown onto the table lightly. Certainly not when the best in your hand is a pair of fives.

Surely – surely – if the UK leaves the EU that changes the circumstances under which the No vote was won? Yes, it does. A second independence referendum could on that basis be justified and rendered legitimate. But that doesn’t mean it’s any more winnable.

Indeed, it would be less so. The same forces that gathered for the No campaign in 2014 would muster their strength again, drawing on the same networks and resources. But they would have a whole new argument they could deploy. Instead of rehashing the dismal campaign of 2014, they would simply ask one question of the Scottish public. Would you rather be part of Europe or part of Britain? Framed like that the answer would be an overwhelming second No.

And that would be it. The independence campaign would be thrown into disarray and disunity. Recriminations would fly. There would be no need to quibble over how long a generation is because the time before this and any subsequent referendum would be forever.

The SNP today dominates Scottish politics. The pro-independence Greens are also on the rise. We have an opportunity to build and entrench support for independence. The quickest way for all of that to collapse is a failed second independence referendum. Our opponents long for us to be so catastrophically reckless as to hold one and lose. It is literally the only realistic path they have to win back power in Scotland in the foreseeable future.

If we are to win, we need an understanding between the grassroots and elected leaderships of the Yes parties. That those great assembled ranks of activists who want independence not tomorrow but today will not press leaders to follow a Leave vote in the EU referendum with a second vote on independence. But the quid pro quo is that those leaders must use their resources to develop the case for independence and work with the grassroots so that there will be that second vote, and it will be won. This needs trust on all sides.

But it has to happen. We need to reach out to those who voted No and better understand them – especially those who share the progressive ideals of the Yes movement but were left cold by our arguments last time round. EU membership was just one small part of a complex debate that encompassed questions of industry, currency, public finances, pensions, and many more. On all of these we need to examine our arguments and develop our case.

If Brexit defies all expectations and does deeply change minds, the Yes movement should be ready. But if and when it doesn’t, we shouldn’t be foolish. The second referendum will be won if it arises from the demands not of impatient Yes activists wanting a quick rerun, but the demands of hundreds of thousands of No voters that have converted and want to throw their support behind national independence. Those who have the means to hold a second referendum are wise enough to know this. Everyone else who supports independence has to be wise enough to realise they are right.


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