THERE was an interesting juxtaposition in Edinburgh yesterday morning.
As more than 100 pro-independence campaigners marched up the Royal Mile to the Court of Session to argue for their right to camp outside Holyrood until Scotland secedes, the Scottish Government released the latest Government Expenditure & Revenue Scotland (GERS) bulletin.
For the former group, the statistics pulled together independently of government will likely not matter. There is very little that will get in the way of their desire for Scotland to be an independent country.
There may be many more in the 45 per cent who voted for independence who feel the same way.
Polls show that most of the others who committed to the idea of Scottish independence in 2014 still back it. For them – intellectually, emotionally – it is still the most rational and intelligent choice.
The GERS figures will likely not change that.
But if those of us who support independence wish to convince the majority of Scots to back Scottish self-determination then it is, to quote that key strand of Bill Clinton’s 1992 Presidential campaign, all about “the economy stupid”.
We must argue that Scotland is better off in control of its own economy. Yesterday, that argument will have taken a beating – all day, by those on the other side of the argument. Our undecided were told again that Scotland is too wee and too poor to be a successful independent country.
But as bad as the GERS figures might be – remember, they represent Scotland within the Union, not as an independent nation – they will not diminish our support for independence. Yes, Scotland’s deficit is almost twice that of the UK as a whole, and the 55 per cent reduction in oil revenue is catastrophic. Next year’s figures may even be worse.
But things are not nearly as grim as predicted by some of the commentators crowing over what the economy might have looked like on independence day.
Onshore revenue has grown by 3.2 per cent from £45.5bn to £51.6bn. The Scottish economy, when looked at in the context of the wider global economic environment, is doing just fine. Recent ONS figures showed that employment in Scotland reached a record level of between September and November.
A report from PwC will today show Scotland will outperform Northern Ireland and Wales in terms of economic output and that growth, though below UK average, remains positive. Our GDP is projected to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2016.
The report also finds that Scotland performs strongly in terms of gross value added (GVA) per head of population – the measure of the value of goods and services provided – where it is second only to the South-East.
Next week the Chancellor will give his budget for 2016. There will be real pressure on him to substantially reduce the headline rate of tax for the North Sea. It will not massively transform tax receipts or turn round the industry, but it could make a real difference to the tens of thousands relying on that industry.
These figures are, if anything, proof that Scotland needs greater fiscal and economic powers – not that we’re better off without them.
GERS: Economy resilient despite oil revenues decline
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