THERESA May has announced that a no-deal Brexit will not be the end of the world.

How reassuring.

Despite the doom and gloom forecast by her sensible-shoed colleague, Chancellor Phil Hammond, May, under pressure from the Brexit hardliners in her team, has swept aside his concerns that a no-deal would cost £80 billion in extra borrowing as well as hampering long-term growth and continued to bang on about “success” and “getting on with the job”.

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This is all cloud cuckoo land – it’s a wonder she can keep a straight face. But, as we know, she’s not alone in her wishful/misguided thinking. There is a whole industry behind the Brexit unicorn, churning out misinformation on “Project Fear versus Project Fact”.

May will be reassured to hear that a controversial think tank with links to some of her top Cabinet officials is busy beavering away at their laptops, coming up with some information (or propaganda) in an attempt to allay worries over the Brexit cliff edge looming ever closer.

This past week, the right-wing, free-market think tank/education charity the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) released their first document in a series of “fear-checking” briefings on a no-deal Brexit, which they say takes a closer look at the “reality” behind the scare stories.

The first of their briefings covers two aspects of this “Project Fear” which have caused much panicked debate in the media and online.

No 1 is “Planes Won’t Fly”, examining a possible complete shutdown of flights to and from the UK and Europe come midnight on March 29, 2019. The IEA argue that, although this scenario is “conceivable”, it is “very unlikely to happen” although their only explanation for this is that the UK Government will have to ensure that new arrangements will be in place by then. The government hasn’t come up with a plan for this in two years or reached a solution with the EU as yet, but surely they can turn something around in six months? Nothing like a deadline to motivate action. If you’re booking a holiday for next summer, just cross your fingers and hope for the best.

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No 2 on the list is “Mobile Phone Bills Will Soar”. Crashing out of the EU with no deal means say hello to heavy roaming charges again when using your phone in other countries in Europe. The IEA argue that the UK Government could absorb existing retail roaming charges into UK law to prevent this. And, if that doesn’t work, then they assert that “in the absence of continued regulation, market forces would keep the prices down”. Phew, market forces working to the benefit of the consumer, that’s a relief ...

Now I think it’s very important that the public has access to all sides of the argument on Brexit so they can make informed decisions, but there is definitely something fishy going on here. Because what the IEA are really saying in these articles – amid their reassurances about arrangements, agreements and market forces – is, don’t worry about a no-deal, because deals can be done to avert catastrophe. So less of a no-deal, more of a, well, deal?

It seems incredible that they didn’t seek to examine emergency food and medicine shortages in their first document, surely one of the biggest concerns of the British public if a no-deal comes to fruition by March 29 next year. At closer examination of the notes to editors at the bottom of their press release on their new fact-checking series, I see that they have indeed published a paper on “Medical Provisions Post Brexit”, which in its conclusion relies on the government to devise some lateral plan on how to overcome regulatory barriers and puts the onus on to the Medical and Healthcare Products Regulations Agency to provide some positive solutions for a no-deal scenario in order to reassure the public. Again, time is running out. Even Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab admitted, during his sweaty speech last week that at least six weeks’ worth of medical supplies would need to be stockpiled by the NHS in the event of a no-deal, and that many NHS patients may not have immediate access to innovative treatments if medical supply exports are delayed. From the state of that hankie used by Raab at his press conference, it looks like even he knows that there are lots of good factual reasons to fear a no-deal.

As for the food matter, I’m guessing the IEA are perhaps finding it rather difficult to come up with “alternative facts” to combat this genuine concern given the avalanche of evidence that confirms worst-case scenarios of empty shelves in supermarkets within the year. But I await that fact-checking document with bated breath.

The IEA describes itself as an educational charity and independent of all political parties and is well known for its pro-Brexit stance, particularly in relation to a no-deal Brexit. However, the Charity Commission is currently investigating the institute in an alleged “cash for access” scandal and possible breach of regulations on political independence. The institute hotly denies it has any “corporate view” on Brexit and insists it has no obligation to publish details about its donors. The commission’s investigation will decide whether the IEA should be registered as a charity or a lobbying firm.

Meanwhile in the real world in Scotland, we are under no illusions on what a no-deal will mean for us – a loss of 80,000 jobs for one, our economy shrinking by £12.7 billion in just 11 years, and a reduction in real disposable income of 9.6% by 2030. These are “facts” and there is every reason to “fear” them. The cliff edge is a real and present danger. And no amount of educational spin or reimagining of the word “deal” from a questionably independent think tank can change that.