IF you look at Brexit and what it may do to the health and social care sector, you would have to conclude that this vital component of our society is facing a perfect storm.

Health and social care in Scotland is already under huge strain with vacancy rates in the care sector alone heading up to 20 per cent and turnover rates which are even higher, so there is already a struggle to find staff, particularly in residential and home care. It is probably not well understood that we are going to need thousands more care workers in the years to come, and one estimate is that we will need an extra 60,000 care workers by 2022. It is not just care for the elderly that we are talking about here – that figure includes child care, too.

These are huge numbers, and given our declining birth rate over the years, there is no prospect of us being able to recruit people to fill all those jobs, particularly in social care which will bear the brunt of the problems that Brexit will only add to.

Talking to our existing members who are EU nationals, what they immediately want to know is are they still welcome here? Will they be allowed to stay beyond March 2019?

It is utterly disgraceful that people who do such important work in our society are being put in such a position. Many of them are already looking elsewhere as was proven by the staggering 96 per cent drop in registrations by EU nurses wanting to work in the UK – I did not expect that to happen so quickly, so that is a very worrying sign indeed.

I also know that some of our members from Eastern Europe, for example, are looking to work in Germany – demand for care workers is high there, too – as they have the necessary language skills, while only last month in Glasgow, a French care firm was looking to sign up EU nationals who are working here at present. We should actually be doing more to retain these workers, not scare them away. About half of the EU nationals in Scotland are Polish, and the reason for that is the long-standing cultural and historical links between our two countries. However, I am sure those Polish workers in the health and social care sector would have little difficulty in adapting to work in Germany if they are no longer welcome in Scotland.

Many of our members in the NHS and care sector have been here for years.

They have established themselves in our communities and raised families here. They are respected by their colleagues and their employers. They do not want to up sticks and go.

They really are needed here, and many more will be needed in future which is why the whole question of the effects of Brexit should be broadened out to look at the reality of what is facing us.

We have an ageing population, there will be increased need for care and therefore there is going to be a need for more care workers. Perhaps it is time for the wider population to be concerned about what will happen when we reach the age when we require home care and possibly residential care – we should start asking ‘Who is going to be there to care for me?’.

The simple fact is that if we took away all the EU workers in the health and social care sector there would not be the labour supply to fill it. That is why we should all be concentrating on ensuring freedom of movement for workers in whatever deals are made with the EU.

Dave Watson is Scottish Organiser Bargaining and Campaigns of Unison Scotland