THERE has been fair bit of hysteria following the First Minister stating that a soft Brexit will delay an independence referendum and that indyref2 won’t take place in 2017. There are two triggers for indyref2; a Brexit against Scotland’s wishes; and polls consistently showing majority support for independence. A hard Brexit, deeply damaging to Scotland’s economy, would increase support for independence to the required referendum triggering levels and so potential No to Yes (N2Y) voters need to know before indyref2 if a soft Brexit accompanied by far more powers guaranteed is an option for Scotland.

Nicola Sturgeon has dared Theresa May to take that option off the table and thus effectively guarantee indyref2. For clarity, having analysed all the likely scenarios, I conclude there is less than a one per cent chance that there will be a special deal for Scotland or that we will have full access to the single market and near-federalism post-Brexit.

Some readers may think this is post-rationalisation following the FM’s statement, but here is an excerpt from my column in The National from May 2016 when Remain still led in the polls.

I suggested a UK Leave victory with Scotland voting Remain and stated the FM should go to EU direct and “simultaneously the Scottish Parliament should open up negotiations on joining EFTA so that we can maintain common market access through that route if required. They should also negotiate with the UK Government as we owe it to the 55 per cent who voted No in 2014 to give Westminster the chance to vote through an unbreakable offer of full home rule and devolution max – everything except defence, and international relations and a progression plan towards full fiscal autonomy (they won’t).

"We would then hold an independence referendum before the UK leaves the EU in 2018, the option on the ballot being only those that are 100 per cent guaranteed and pre-negotiated so there can be no vows or promises of more powers during the campaign as we now know they are already off-the-table before we vote. So the options would likely be stay in UK but outside the EU, or independence with either EU or EFTA membership depending on what’s best for Scotland.”

So in other words Nicola Sturgeon is simply positioning Scotland for a 2018 referendum that generates a Yes win. If she didn’t offer to take indyref2 off the table the Unionists would shamefacedly offer more powers again, “ah but this time we really mean it as Brexit makes further devolution possible and more desirable”. Take that obvious lie from them and all they have left is scaremongering, but Brexit is considerably scarier than independence with single market access so that just won’t hack it for the No camp next time.

As for no referendum in 2017, that’s not news. The referendum bill won’t even pass Parliament till 2018 and anyone who thought a snap referendum was on the cards was frankly out of touch with reality. Fearmongering and uncertainty was the main/only weapon of the No campaign in 2014 and Brexit is a nuclear bomb of uncertainty, until Article 50 is enacted and negotiations start to go in a clear direction and the until the Brexit fog has lifted, potential N2Y’s can’t answer the constitutional question. There may be as much as 20 per cent of the electorate that voted No in 2014 that could be persuaded to be N2Ys, but before they switch they will need the following questions answered. The probable answers are in brackets.

1. Can Westminster really do a trade deal that will be beneficial without the EU fees and immigration? (No).

2. What will the border with England look like and how will that effect trade? (Depends on the Brexit trade deal but most likely no hard border as promised by the UK to Ireland).

3. Will Theresa May cave in and ask the EU for a soft Brexit? (No).

4. Would the EU accept a soft Brexit request or say “no, either you accept the four freedoms or you are out of the single market”? (They would say No as there is no such thing as a soft Brexit, the EU would cease to exist if they agreed to that so there is no point on making EU membership a red line for Scotland with a soft Brexit).

5. If a soft Brexit was on the cards, will Eurosceptic Tories resign and Ukip support surge, thus throwing the UK into political and constitutional chaos? (Yes almost certainly).

6) As a hard Brexit gets closer will the economic damage we have seen since the vote get worse? (Yes and it will get worse still after the UK actually leaves the EU).

7. Throughout the Brexit process which government UK/Scottish looks the most competent and trustworthy? (Scotland’s).

8. What is the EU position on an independent Scotland? Would we be in and so be able to access the single market? What opt-outs, the euro in particular, would we have and what would it cost? (We don’t know, they will probably say we are in and inherit all opt-outs but need EFTA to fall back on in case that’s not certain by the time of the vote. This would bring the pro-EU N2Y on board and also be acceptable to the small number of anti-EU Y2Ns) 9. Would EFTA want Scotland as a member and would that be better for Scotland than full EU membership if rUK has gone with a hard Brexit? (Yes, but they wouldn’t want rUK to join as they are too big).

10. Do the SNP and wider Yes campaign have a credible, well-thought-through prospectus for greater economic prosperity and for creating a better nation with the powers of independence than the chaotic post-Brexit UK can offer? (They will have before indyref2 is called).

We won’t know the answers to these questions until Article 50 is enacted and both sides set out their negotiation red lines, and then possibly not for a few months when the outcomes become clear. So the earliest a referendum can be called is the third quarter of 2017 and the two possible dates are May or September 2018. If the answers to the above questions come out the way I have suggested then there is your majority Yes vote right there in 2018 folks, before we even start the campaign.