RESEARCH released yesterday shows over £235 billion of trade is at risk if Britain votes to leave the European Union.
The figures, released by Britain Stronger In Europe shows that the EU is the UK’s largest trading partner – accounting for 50 per cent of all UK goods exports and worth £148bn in 2014.
When trade deals currently being negotiated by the EU are taken into account, that figure rises to to 80 per cent of all UK goods exports, totalling £236bn. That means that if the UK were to leave the EU, exports worth more than £235bn would be in danger of facing trade barriers and tariffs, which could significantly reduce and damage UK-EU trade.
Scheduled to be held before the end of 2017, the referendum on the UK’s membership of the EU is thought by many to take place this year. Prime Minister David Cameron, who is in favour of the UK’s membership, is thought to believe that delaying the vote will only favour those who wish for a ‘Brexit’. Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has said that if Scotland is taken out of the EU “against its will” this may form the “change in material circumstances” needed for precipitating a second referendum on Scottish independence.
The figures were put together by lobbying group Britain Stronger In Europe, which counts among its board members Green MP Caroline Lucas, recently-knighted Lib Dem Danny Alexander, chair of ACAS Brendan Barber, Labour life peer Peter Mandelson, TV presenter June Sarpong and Conservative MP Damian Green. The group is chaired by Stuart Rose, Conservative life peer and former executive chair of Marks and Spencer.
The group noted that as part of the EU, the UK is currently negotiating the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) which is estimated to add £6bn to the UK GDP by 2030 and an additional 80,000 jobs to the UK economy. TITP has many detractors, not least those who point to the fact that negotiations for the deal are currently taking place behind closed doors.
In the wake of the figures, even senior ‘leave’ campaigners conceded that leaving Europe would cause some economic pain. Andy Wigmore, head of communications for Leave.EU, a group campaigning for Britain to leave the EU which last month announced it had 355,000 supporters, wrote on Twitter that “true pain before gain is probably worth it.”
Commenting on the new figures, Rose said: “Being part of a half a billion strong economy provides Britain with a gateway to the world that cannot be matched. We already benefit from the EU’s trade deals with 50 countries and are negotiating more with Japan, Australia and the United States. These would mean we would export 80 per cent of our goods to the EU or to those countries.If we leave, those exports – worth more than £235bn – would be at risk, facing trade barriers and fees – hitting British businesses hard and increasing prices in the shops. These are the stakes. Those proposing leaving the EU must show how this damage can be avoided.”
Rose warned: “If we choose to leave, we will regret it for a lifetime. It will be irreversible. There will be no going back and no second chances. Future generations will look back at this moment as the one that defined the opportunities available to them – their jobs; their pay packets; their shopping bills. Put simply, Britain is stronger in Europe. Leaving is a risk we cannot afford to take.”
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